The fallout in the nine-member Tonse Alliance soon after taking power in June 2020 is making smaller and midsized parties cagey about electoral coalitions where they play second fiddle again. But at what point do such alliances matter in the electoral process?
The clock to the elections is ticking fast to the final toll and with 50%+1 the decider of who takes power, the political space has descended into a theatre of manoeuvres for alliances and king making.
But there are fears that are checking some parties in their feet: how the nine-party coalition of the Tonse Alliance that grabbed power in June 2020 disintegrated soon afterwards.
Smaller and midsized political parties, many of whom played vital roles in that election victory, are now expressing deep reservations about forming coalitions or supporting larger parties.
In that coalition, UTM was a key ally.
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With its president, late Saulos Chilima, a potent political force that time as Vice President of the republic and on account of his own capacity, UTM is seen as having had the largest influence behind President Lazarus Chakwera’s ascendancy to power.
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Today, UTM remains a force which the two major political parties – Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) – may want to partner.
But UTM president Dalitso Kabambe has openly voiced what many smaller parties have been discussing behind closed doors: that coalition partners have often been treated as mere election tools—discarded once victory is secured.
“Parties are afraid of playing second fiddle again because of how the Malawi Congress Party treated its partners after the elections.
“They were promised partnership, but what we got was exclusion and disrespect,” Kabambe said at a recent political rally
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Kabambe’s sentiments are echoed across the political spectrum.
Members of other parties that were part of the Tonse Alliance say they were sidelined in appointments and key decisions once MCP secured power.
People’s Party president Joyce Banda said they fought together and campaigned together, but once in government, their views were ignored and “our people forgotten.”
“It felt like a one-party government,” Banda said.
But should coalitions really be that much of a bother at this point?
Political analyst Ernest Thindwa said Malawi’s presidential system does not necessarily require parties to enter coalitions during the first round of voting.
“Ours is a presidential system where electoral alliances should not be a defining feature of electoral strategy, particularly in the first round,” said Thindwa.
What parties should worry about instead is whether they can demonstrate the strength of their individual electoral appeal, which can then be used to bargain for inclusion in a second round, should that arise, he said.
Thindwa said that realistically, only two parties— the DPP and MCP—stand a credible chance of winning the presidency in 2025.
He argued that any meaningful alliance is likely to form around these two dominant political forces.
“Minor parties can only access governmental office through either DPP or MCP.
“Therefore, these two major parties have the bargaining leverage to lead any alliance, unlike the smaller parties, who lack such political capital,” he said.
On the role of running mates, Thindwa cautioned against overestimating their influence post-elections, saying their relevance often diminishes once the presidential candidate secures victory.
“Given our current constitutional framework, the running mate is mainly important in terms of pre-election mobilisation. After the elections, there are few political and legal safeguards to ensure their continued significance as vice president.
“This is further compounded by our clientele’s political culture, which prioritises narrow interests and power consolidation over broader national development,” Thindwa said.
DPP spokesperson Shadric Namalomba has acknowledged the unease about shifting alliance dynamics and mistrust among political players.
Namalomba said the political climate is particularly tense for smaller and midsized parties, which are increasingly wary of entering into coalitions with larger parties due to past experiences and the implications of the 50%+1 electoral threshold.
“We do agree that the current political landscape in Malawi is fraught with tension as smaller and midsized parties prepare for the 2025 elections,” Namalomba said.
He said one of the main drivers of this tension is the implementation of the 50% +1 electoral system, which has made coalition building more crucial.
He said parties are now more cautious about giving up their autonomy in the process.
Namalomba noted that past informal agreements among parties have often ended in disputes and unfulfilled promises, further eroding trust and weakening the appetite for political alliances.
“Smaller and midsized parties may wish to place a high value on their autonomy and distinct identity. They may not be willing to compromise their values or dilute their identity by joining forces with larger parties,” he said.
Despite the challenges presented by this complex environment, Namalomba maintained that the DPP remains optimistic and that it is prepared to roll out a robust campaign plan.
“As a major opposition political party, the DPP sees both challenges and opportunities in this situation.
“We will soon unveil our election strategy, including a manifesto that outshines any other competition. We invite all voters to follow us in the coming days. We are confident of winning this coming election,” he said.
MCP Sectary General Richard Chimwendo Banda said the party has always embraced common fronts.
“And it makes great sense to work together with like minded political institutions that aim moving this country forward,” he said.
The Tonse Alliance came into power with high hopes and strong public support. Comprising of nine parties—including UTM, MCP, PP, and Alliance for Democracy—the alliance promised to usher in a new era of servant leadership.
But cracks soon appeared.
UTM, in particular, found itself at odds with MCP over policy direction and appointments.
Disputes became public, and what began as a united front slowly disintegrated.
Many within UTM felt they were bearing the political costs without enjoying the political benefits.
One by one, the parties left the alliance in disillusionment feeling having been used for others to take power.
Fast forward to 2025, parties are now cagey and approaching the elections with caution.
Coalition talks have stalled in several circles. Some parties have announced they will go it alone—even if it means facing the risk of low vote counts.
