By Mcloyd Chilangiza:
The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has warned that El Niño, higher fertiliser prices and fuel costs could cut Malawi’s gross domestic product (GDP) by an average of 2.9 percent in 2027.
The shocks could push an additional 495,000 people into poverty and 4.6 million into undernourishment.
The study estimates that the combined shocks could reduce Malawi’s GDP by between 1 percent and 7 percent, depending on the severity and distribution of El Niño-induced rainfall deficits.
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According to the study, agriculture, which employs about 64 percent of the labour force and contributes about 22.3 percent to GDP, could bear the greatest impact, with agricultural GDP losses averaging 8.1 percent and ranging from 2.7 percent to 19.6 percent across the modelled El Niño scenarios.
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“The outlook for Malawi is uncertain, but a strengthening El Niño and high fertiliser prices represent significant risks to 2027 crop production and food security,” the study states.
The study—authored by Chris Hillbruner, Karl Pauw and Weston Anderson— found that fertiliser costs for Malawi’s upcoming growing season were estimated to be 61 percent above the pre-war baseline because of disruptions in global fertiliser markets.
According to the researchers, higher fertiliser prices would reduce fertiliser use and crop yields, lowering national GDP by 0.86 percent and agricultural GDP by 2.42 percent when combined with the fuel price shock.
This would have a knock-on effect on agricultural production and household purchasing power.
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The modelling shows that domestic agricultural commodity prices could rise by between 5.4 percent and 52.3 percent across the El Niño scenarios, with an average increase of 17.6 percent.
The increase in food prices, combined with lower economic activity, could reduce average real household expenditure by 4.2 percent.
Centre for Humanitarian Assistance and Social Protection Executive Director Ken Sakala said this could be driven by a set of interlinked factors, including limited resilience to climate and agricultural shocks and economic vulnerability.
He called for anticipatory, coordinated and resilience-focused action, including investment in irrigation, soil health, post-harvest storage and market access to mitigate the impacts of the threats.
“With El Niño forecast, we must act now. Pre-positioning drought-tolerant seed, cash transfers and water points before the lean season is more cost-effective and preserves dignity. Scale irrigation, conservation agriculture, agroforestry and village savings and loans. These give households buffers when external support declines,” Sakala said.
Mwapata Institute Executive Director William Chadza recently urged farmers to diversify beyond maize by growing drought-resistant crops such as sweet potatoes, sorghum, cowpeas, finger millet and sesame.
The warning comes as the country faces a funding gap of about K324 billion against a requirement of K488.5 billion to mitigate the impacts of El Niño.
The government is expected to roll out the Farm Inputs Subsidy Programme (FISP) in September, targeting 1.22 million beneficiaries with subsidised inputs during the 2026-27 farming season.
Meanwhile, a market check by this publication shows that prices for basal and top-dressing fertiliser range from K190,000 to K210,000 in most retail shops.
The World Food Programme recently indicated that over five million people risk facing a hunger crisis during the 2027 consumption year.
