By Kingsley Jassi:
Malawians will be poorer in 2030 than they were in 2021, despite ambitious national plans to achieve middle-income status, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO).
The IMF forecasts that Malawi’s GDP per capita will drop to $480.6 by 2029 from $580.9 in 2021, when the country began implementing its first 10- year plan under the Malawi 2063 vision.
This represents a huge setback for Malawi’s development aspirations, as middle-income status requires a GDP per capita of at least $1,000.
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The IMF estimates Malawi’s current GDP at just $10.9 billion, with GDP per capita at $448.2, indicating that the country is failing to create wealth for its growing population.
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In an interview on Monday, Malawi Economic Justice Network Executive Director Bertha Phiri questioned the government’s commitment to the Agriculture, Tourism and Mining (ATM) strategy, saying that there is little investment in these priority sectors.
“This is deeply concerning. We spend more resources developing plans than implementing them. It is no longer about policies, but putting resources where our priorities are,” Phiri said.
In a recent interview, economist Marvin Banda said it was pathetic that Malawi is nearly in the final stages of the 2024- 25 financial year, yet GDP growth rate projections for the year were set at a meagre 1.8 percent, which is also likely to be revised downwards to between 1.6 percent.
He added that the manufacturing sector must be catalytic for further economic growth in other sectors.
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“Malawi, being an agriculture-based economy, would require manufacturing to aim at fostering the transition to irrigation systems.
“The manufacturing industry would need to intensify efforts to provide affordable tools for farmers, enabling them to graduate from rain-fed mechanisms, which are not conducive to economic growth,” Banda said.
A recent National Planning Commission assessment acknowledged slow progress in achieving key Malawi 2063 milestones.
The report warns that, at the current pace, Malawi will achieve its 2030 targets 15 years behind schedule unless economic growth averages 10.6 percent annually.
The latest IMF projections cast doubt on Malawi’s ambitious development goals outlined in the MW2063 vision, which aims to transform the country into an inclusively wealthy and self-reliant nation.
When contacted on Monday, Treasury spokesperson Williams Banda said the ministry would study the IMF report before commenting on its projections.
