A new report has established that climate change will continue to significantly impact Malawi’s road infrastructure and agriculture, mainly due to increased risk of flooding, which would have broader economic and social knock-on impacts.
The report, titled ‘From Climate Risk to Resilience: Unpacking the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Malawi, November 2023’, says Malawi is aware of these risks and has taken proactive measures to address them but the measures are still wanting.
It has been issued by the International Food Policy Research Institute (Ifpri) and the African Climate Foundation (ACF).
The report notes that Malawi’s efforts have failed due to difficulties in accessing climate finance, given the complexity of the current climate finance architecture and macroeconomic vulnerabilities, in particular, unsustainable public debt levels.
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“In agriculture, the increased uncertainty around future precipitation levels in Malawi will likely result in higher variability in crop yields.
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“Climate change is projected to exacerbate pre-existing environmental degradation challenges, including soil erosion. These effects are particularly problematic due to Malawi’s high poverty rate, lack of economic diversification and significant dependence on rain-fed production,” it reads.
The median temperature is expected to continue to increase between the 2020s and 2060s, and be significantly higher if global efforts to reduce emissions are ineffective, according to Ifpri and ACF.
A recent African Development Bank (AfDB) climate change assessment shows that Malawi needs to invest $46.33 billion up to 2040, or $2.21 billion annually, to deal with effects of climate change.
Quoting a World Bank analysis, the report shows that climate change will continue imposing large costs on the economy and on already vulnerable households, further indicating that climate change could reduce Malawi’s GDP growth by three to nine percent by 2030.
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The ACF-Ifpri report comes at a time when another report by Famine Early Warning Systems Network (Fewsnet) released in September this year indicated that the anticipated El Nino weather condition might escalate food insecurity in the country.
The report says the strong likelihood of El Niño this year triggers fear of below-average rainfall in southern Africa, which could consequently reduce crop output for the 2023-24 agriculture season in Malawi.
It suggests several interventions such as investment in irrigation to reduce the severity of droughts wherever irrigation is feasible.
National Planning Commission spokesperson Thom Khanje said the country needs to strengthen the economy by making it more resilient to shocks, natural or human made, while implementing robust climate change adaptation strategies.
“Efforts around managing climate change effects need to be supported by long-term solutions to strengthen the economy through development of our productive sectors.
“One sure way is having government taking a very active role in building strong alliances with the private sector in areas such as mining, mega farming, agro-processing and enhanced manufacturing,” Khanje said.
Earlier, Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services Director Lucy Mtilatila acknowledged the existence of a knowledge gap and pleaded with people to understand that extreme events may become be common.
