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A new report by Famine and Early Warning Systems Network (Fewsnet) indicates that crisis outcomes are expected to persist across most Southern Region districts from June through to January 2024, driven by agricultural production shortfalls during the 2022-23 season.
The Malawi-Food Security Outlook, which covers the period from June 2023 to January 2024 and was released on July 7 2023, indicates that food and non-food commodity prices will continue surging.
Based on Fewsnet price projections, prices of maize in Malawi are expected to increase in the coming months, with most districts in the Southern Region likely to exceed K1,000 per kilogramme (kg).
“Over the past five years, maize prices have ranged between K97 and K283 per kilogramme. However, from June 2023 to March 2024, prices are projected to range between K486 and K870 per kilogramme,” the report reads.
Preliminary weather forecasts for the 2023-24 season by agencies such as Climate Hazards Centre and Nasa indicate that the October 2023 to March 2024 rainy season is likely to be delayed due to the likelihood of a positive El Niño Southern Oscillation (Enso) state.
“The 2023-24 rainy season is expected to be below-average in the southern half of Malawi, likely resulting in below-average crop harvests, and average to above-average in the northern half of Malawi, supporting crop growth and average to above-average harvests,” the outlook notes.
Responding to the issue, Centre for Social Concern Project Officer responsible for social conditions research programme Kondwani Hara said it is unfortunate that maize prices continue to increase when they could be slowed down by, among other things, increasing agriculture productivity.
Hara said while subsidies are also a way to go to improve productivity, the targeting of beneficiaries has been a problem.
“The government should increase agriculture productivity to arrest the continuous increase in the prices of maize and other commodities. When the cost of the living increases, one of the factors that contribute to that is the increase in maize prices. So, to improve productivity, the government can provide subsidies, access to better seed, fertilisers and irrigation facilities to farmers,” he said.
Speaking recently, government spokesperson Moses Kunkuyu said the government will continue to provide affordable farm inputs to poor households that have land and capacity to cultivate.
“The government will also continue with other social cash transfer and public works programmes to ensure that poor households are assisted,” Kunkuyu said.
Generally, the national maize production for the current season is below average due to recorded reductions in almost all agricultural zones of the country due to reduced access to fertiliser and the impacts of Tropical Cyclone Freddy in the Southern Region.
It is expected that food stocks will be below-average, driving early reliance on market food purchases by households.
In April 2023, the National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) had 70,000 metric tonnes (mt) of maize carry-over stocks, some of which was being drawn down for humanitarian assistance.
In May, the government granted NFRA K6 billion to purchase about 20,000mt of maize.
However, the total from carry-over stocks and planned purchases amounts to less than half of the Strategic Grain Reserve threshold of 217,000mt per year.
