The Kwacha weakened by 5.7 percent against the United States dollar in the past 12 months to November.
This is according to historical economic indicators extracted from weekly financial market update published by Bridgepath Capital Limited.
The chart shows that the exchange rate for the Kwacha-to-dollar stood at K1, 749.95 as of November 22, 2024, a significant depreciation compared to the K1, 650.31-rate recorded a year earlier in November 2023.
It further shows that the local unit reached its highest point of K1, 749.95 against the dollar in October 2024, after trading in the 1,700 to1, 730 range for a greater part of the second half of the year.
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The extract also shows that the kwacha depreciated by six percent against the South African Rand in the period under review.
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It was recorded at K98.65 as at November 22 2024 from K92.76 recorded in November last year.
Similarly, the Kwacha fell by one percent against the Pound now trading at K2243.97 from K2219.25 last year.
However, the local unit gained by two percent against the Euro to trade at K1869.08 from K1907.62 last year.
Financial Market Dealers Association President Leslie Fatch said the performance is reflective of the pressure the local unit has against major currencies.
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This, he said, is owing to the continued supply and demand mismatch, which informed the devaluation that happened in November 2024, and the subsequent gradually depreciations thereafter.
He added that the mixed performance to other currencies is also reflecting of the underlying performance of those respective currencies against the Dollar, hence the varying movements.
“For example, we have seen the Rand appreciating against Dollar post the elections. On the other hand, the Dollar rally post the US elections has resulted in its strengthening hence the resultant depreciation of those currencies means Kwacha strengthening against those respective currencies.
“We anticipate continued pressure on the currency due to the increasing trade deficit, especially this period of the year as the country is actively trying to import agricultural inputs to support the agricultural season, whilst on the other hand we have limited supply,” Fatch said.
Economist Velli Nyirongo said the Kwacha faces considerable risks of continued depreciation as without significant interventions, forex shortages are likely to persist, particularly if export revenues from key sectors such as agriculture remain stagnant.
He further said the country’s high external debt burden and associated repayment obligations will also continue to place pressure on foreign reserves, exacerbating currency weakness.
Another economist, Marvin Banda said a tremendous backlog in the import component of dynamics of the current account and the prevalence of an exorbitant price of black-market forex exacerbated the problem.
“It was envisaged that “currency chasing” would subside with the ensuing tobacco season that promised a lot for the forex coffers.
“From then on, the currency continued to experience oscillations on a near daily basis with the auctions only providing an average price for purchases culminating to the annual depreciation of an average 5.7 percent against the US dollar,” Banda said.
