Malawi is expected to produce 3.3 million metric tonnes (MT) of maize this year, up from 2.9 million MT last year, translating into a rise of 13 percent, the Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM) said Wednesday.
RBM economist Daucilous Sadala disclosed this in Lilongwe during a Monetary Policy Technical Forum.
However, the projected maize output remains about 200,000 MT below the national requirement of 3.5 million MT.
Quoting the First Round of Crop Estimates from the Ministry of Agriculture, Sadala attributed the anticipated increase in production to favourable weather and government investment in the agriculture sector, including the Farm Input Subsidy Programme.
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Providing insight into some of the macroeconomic conditions considered by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBM when it cut the policy rate last Thursday from 26 percent to 24 percent, Sadala said the committee assessed several variables, including real GDP growth and the inflation outlook.
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He said the committee expects headline inflation to average 24.8 percent in 2027, significantly lower than the 28.4 percent recorded in 2025.
“This is mainly because we are anticipating a better harvest in 2026 compared with 2025, coupled with various interventions and initiatives by the government to ensure that inflationary pressures remain suppressed,” he said.
Sadala added that while authorities expect food prices to continue falling on the back of improved production, the MPC also observed risks from non-food inflation arising from recent increases in fuel and electricity prices.
RBM Director of Financial Markets Esther Machado said although this year’s anticipated maize production may fall short of national requirements, the country is likely to benefit from carry-over stocks and maize imports, which could dampen inflationary pressures.
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Economics Association of Malawi Executive Director Esmie Kanyumbu welcomed the MPC’s decision to cut the policy rate.
Kanyumbu said although inflation has been declining, it remains elevated and called on authorities to continue implementing measures that would further reduce inflation.
She added that inflation continues to face external risks, including tensions in the Middle East.
