A report by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (Fewsnet) indicates that seasonal improvements in food access are expected countrywide from April as the 2026 maize harvest becomes available.
However, the report says pockets of hunger will persist in some areas of the Southern Region through September amid limited recovery from consecutive years of shocks.
Malawi’s food security is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events, which frequently disrupt agricultural production.
Periodic droughts and floods have destroyed crops, reducing food availability and income-earning opportunities.
For example, severe droughts linked to El Niño in 2015, 2016 and the 2023-24 season, along with flooding caused by cyclones Ana and Gombe between 2021 and 2022, Cyclone Freddy in 2023, Cyclone Chido in 2024 and Cyclone Jude in March 2025 resulted in acute food insecurity.
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“Seasonal improvements in food access are anticipated from April to May as households start to consume food from own production; earn income from crop sales and harvesting labour; and as food prices decline following seasonal trends.
“However, recovery from recent multiple shocks will be gradual; while poor households are expected to minimally meet their food needs, most will be unable to afford essential non-food expenditures,” the report reads.
Speaking in Parliament during the 2026-27 budget presentation, Minister of Finance Joseph Mwanamvekha said the government would continue to mitigate the impact of economic downturns and rising prices on poor and vulnerable groups.
Among other measures, Mwanamvekha said the government has allocated K7 billion for the Social Cash Transfer Programme, representing an increase of 58.6 percent from the 2025–26 revised provision of K4.4 billion.
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The report also indicates that from June to September maize prices are expected to fall below last year’s levels by about 30 percent.
“Maize grain prices are expected to remain atypically stable between February and March due to increased market supply from trader and farmer stock releases; however, Fewsnet projects that prices will remain high, around 35 percent above the five-year average though roughly 40 percent lower than last year.
“Prices are likely to begin declining in March/April, with prices expected to remain about 60 percent above the five-year average but around 20 percent lower than the same time last year,” the report adds.
On humanitarian needs, Fewsnet estimates that 2.0 to 2.49 million people will likely require food assistance during the January to March 2026 peak lean season.
Malawi requires approximately 3.1 million tonnes of maize annually to meet national consumption needs.
Food systems commentator Ken Sakala said that while the drop in maize prices benefits consumers, farmers are struggling.
He said this could negatively affect food security in the near future as farmers may lose interest in growing the staple crop.
“What the government needs to do is to ensure farm inputs such as seed and fertilizer are made cheaper, otherwise many would become discouraged to grow,” he said.
Currently, the government through the Department of Disaster Management Affairs is distributing relief items under the Lean Season Response Programme targeting more than four million people.
