The introduction of the 50-percent-plus-one vote requirement for presidential elections is quietly shifting the political chessboard in Malawi—particularly for the Northern Region, analysts have suggested.
Political analyst Ernest Thindwa said with the new system now in place—requiring a presidential candidate to secure more than half of the national vote to win—political dynamics could change.
He said unlike the Central and Southern regions, where voter loyalty is relatively entrenched and predictable, the north has often shown greater political flexibility.
“In a political landscape where ethnic and regional identities still heavily influence voting patterns, the north could emerge as a vital bargaining chip,” Thindwa said
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He said while the centre and south were expected to remain dominant sources of presidential candidates due to their population size, the north may increasingly find itself courted as the crucial swing region—especially in tightly contested races where every percentage point matters.
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On his part, political analyst Wonderful Mkhutche said the Northern Region would likely be a key decider in the September election, particularly for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Malawi Congress Party (MCP), who, respectively, are perceived to have a hold on the Southern Region and Central Region.
DPP presidential candidate Peter Mutharika has opted for Jane Ansah from the Central Region district of Ntcheu.
Political analyst Rodrick Kamwamba said Kabambe’s choice of Matthew Mtumbuka appeared to be targeting not only the Northern Region vote but also the middle class and academia.
MCP leader Lazarus Chakwera has also chosen Vitumbiko Mumba as running mate.
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People’s Party president Joyce Banda, who is also a former State president, has picked Khumbo Kachali as running mate.
“Some people may argue that most people in the Central Region have suffered economically for the past five years.
“However, the voting pattern in the Central Region has not changed for more than 30 years, 26 of which the MCP was in the opposition,” he said.
Presidential candidates finished presenting nomination papers to the Malawi Electoral Commission (Mec) on Wednesday, when Mec Chairperson Judge Annabel Mtalimanja called on political actors to promote a peaceful campaign.
