By Andrea Duncan Naweta:
We, as a nation, have received one of the clearest climate warnings in recent years. The Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services has advised that there is more than an 80 percent probability that a strong-to-very-strong El Niño event will develop and persist into 2027.
More concerning still, there is a significant possibility that this event could rival, or even surpass, the devastating 2015-16 El Niño. Warnings such as these should never be treated as routine weather updates. They are strategic planning documents. They are early warning systems intended to guide government institutions, businesses, communities and households before the first serious impacts are felt.
In disaster risk management, the value of a warning lies not in knowing what is coming, but in acting before it arrives.
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Perhaps the most important message in the government’s advisory is one that could easily be overlooked. This is not simply a drought forecast. It is a warning about compound hazards.
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For 12 districts— including Blantyre, Mulanje, Thyolo, Chiradzulu, Phalombe, Mangochi, Balaka, Chikwawa and Nsanje— in Southern Malawi, the forecast points to the simultaneous likelihood of moderate dry spells, severe drought conditions and severe extreme rainfall events.
In other words, Malawi must prepare for too little water and too much water at the same time.
This in itself changes everything. For many years, El Niño has become almost synonymous with drought in public discourse. Yet the latest advisory reminds us that climate variability is becoming increasingly complex.
Communities may experience prolonged dry periods, only to be followed by intense rainfall capable of causing floods, infrastructure damage and water contamination. Such extremes place enormous pressure on already stretched public resources and expose weaknesses in infrastructure planning.
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No sector exposes Malawi’s climate vulnerability more clearly than water. Water connects agriculture, health, education, energy, industry and household welfare. When water systems fail, virtually every other sector feels the consequences.
Water is often discussed only when taps or boreholes run dry. Yet reliable water supply depends on a complex chain of infrastructure, dams, rivers, boreholes, treatment works, pumping stations, electricity supply, pipelines, reservoirs and distribution networks. When any one part of this chain fails, the consequences quickly spread across communities, hospitals, schools, businesses and industries.
Our country has made commendable investments in expanding access to safe water through government programmes supported by development partners such as the World Bank, the African Development Bank and other cooperating institutions. New treatment plants have been constructed, distribution networks expanded and rural water supply projects implemented across the country.
These investments deserve recognition. The real question now is not whether infrastructure has been built, but whether it is resilient enough to withstand increasingly unpredictable climate extremes.
Recent history should guide our thinking.
Cyclones Ana, Idai and Freddy demonstrated how rapidly floods can damage water treatment facilities, pipelines, bridges and intake structures. Repairs consumed resources that could otherwise have been invested in expanding services.
Prolonged dry spells, on the other hand, lowered reservoir levels, reduced river flows, dried boreholes and intensified water rationing across many urban centres.
At the same time, damage to electricity infrastructure affected pumping operations, illustrating the close relationship between water security and energy security.
These experiences should not simply be remembered; they should shape preparedness.
Water utilities—including water boards, district councils and private water service providers—should use the remaining months or weeks before peak impacts to undertake comprehensive vulnerability assessments of critical infrastructure.
Emergency repair materials, standby pumps, water bowsers, portable generators, treatment chemicals and essential maintenance equipment should be strategically positioned in high-risk areas. Preventive maintenance programmes should be accelerated rather than postponed.
The forecast also strengthens the case for climate-resilient investments.
Solar-powered boreholes, gravity-fed systems where feasible, flood-resilient intake structures, elevated electrical installations, protected catchments and improved water storage capacity are no longer optional innovations; they are becoming necessities. Investments that appear costly today may prove significantly less expensive than repeated emergency reconstruction following every major climate event.
Preparedness, however, extends beyond infrastructure. Human capacity is equally important.
Technical personnel responsible for maintaining water systems must have the equipment, transport, communication tools and institutional support necessary to respond rapidly when failures occur. Trade unions also have a constructive role to play by advocating for safe working conditions, adequate protective equipment, emergency response arrangements and staff welfare. During periods of crisis, motivated employees become one of an institution’s greatest assets.
Financial preparedness is another critical dimension.
Malawi continues to operate within a constrained fiscal environment. This makes prudent procurement and efficient resource utilisation even more important. Every Kwacha invested in preventive maintenance and preparedness has the potential to save many more resources that would otherwise be spent on emergency response and infrastructure rehabilitation.
Preparedness should not remain the responsibility of the government alone.
District councils should review local contingency plans. Civil society organisations should intensify public awareness campaigns. Educational institutions should strengthen environmental education. Community leaders should promote water conservation and catchment protection. Households should also consider practical measures such as safe water storage, rainwater harvesting where appropriate and responsible water use.
Climate resilience is built collectively. The government advisory repeatedly emphasises preparedness, monitoring and early action. These recommendations should not remain within technical reports. They must translate into coordinated action across institutions and communities.
As Malawi moves steadily towards the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, Goal 6—which is premised on ensuring the availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all—remains one of our most important national aspirations. The approaching El Niño may well become an important test of how resilient those investments have become.
Extreme weather cannot always be prevented. Its impacts, however, can be significantly reduced through timely planning, coordinated leadership and informed decision-making.
Climate change no longer asks whether we are rich or poor, urban or rural, public or private; it exposes how prepared or unprepared we are. The countries that suffer least are not necessarily those with the best weather, but those that plan best for uncertainty. Malawi still has time to choose preparedness over regret.
The warning has already been issued. The opportunity that now remains is to act before the forecast becomes reality.
Andrea Duncan Naweta is a researcher and writes on public policy, water governance, institutional reform and sustainable development.
