By Benadetta Chiwanda Mia:
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (Fewsnet) estimates that between January and March 2025, the number of people requiring humanitarian food assistance will peak between four million and five million, predominantly in southern Malawi.
According to a Fewsnet outlook covering October 2024 to May 2025, the food security situation is expected to remain stressed from February to May 2025.
“Following the conclusion of humanitarian food assistance distributions in March, food security outcomes from April to May are likely to transition to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) due to the availability of 2025’s own harvested crops,” the report states.
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The food component accounts for 53.7 percent of the Consumer Price Index in the country.
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In an interview, economic expert Marvin Banda said the food insecurity situation results in severely strained economic forces, leading to low Gross Domestic Product growth and unsustainably high inflation.
Banda added that as food insecurity prompts the declaration of a state of disaster, this causes a shift in priorities in both government expenditure and donor-driven assistance.
He indicated that this was evident in the 2024-25 mid-year budget, as the strain on fiscal space became unmanageable due to inadequate domestic revenues.
“…development partners are thus required to play a greater role in aid provision, which also impacts the development budget negatively, as these partners face their own fiscal constraints.
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“Supply shocks in the food market, especially maize, have caused volatile price increases, as seen in December 2024 and January 2025, when smallholder farmers and households saw a dwindling food supply before the fresh harvest begins in mid-April.
“Food insecurity is likely to persist in the southern region, as many affected individuals experience multidimensional poverty, preventing their incomes from covering the shortages,” Banda said.
Banda added that food insecurity is indicative of low economic productivity, given the country’s agriculture-based economy.
He said the shortage of fuel compounds the issue, increasing transportation costs and exerting additional inflationary pressures on maize, particularly in southern areas.
Consumers Association of Malawi Executive Director John Kapito weighed in to say the government’s ability to bear the costs of providing food assistance to those affected is doubtful.
“Humanitarian food programmes are typically delivered by government agencies and donors like the World Food Programme and require significant investment to purchase and distribute food. My concern is whether the government is prepared to meet such high costs,” Kapito said.
Prices for maize, Malawi’s staple crop, have skyrocketed reaching K75,000 per 50-kilogramme bag in most urban centres in the country from about K50,000 in January last year.
