The second Malawi’s National Export Strategy (NES II) is falling short of its targets evidenced by continued deterioration of Malawi exports.
The strategy, launched in 2021, is aimed to raise exports from 14.6 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2018 to 20 percent by 2026.
But five years down the line, the country remains far from meeting that target.
According to the International Trade Centre (ITC) Trade Map, Malawi’s export earnings have declined from $1.02 billion in 2021 to $913.8 million in 2025.
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However, the figures show that the exports peaked at $1.03 billion in 2023 before falling to $958.5 million in 2024 and further down to $913.8 million in 2025, the lowest level recorded during the five-year i implementation
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The contraction makes Malawi destitute in its desperate attempt to reach roughly $6.4 billion in exports by 2026, based on the International Monetary Fund’s GDP projection of $18.15 billion.
The trend highlights the NES II’s struggle to diversify Malawi’s export basket and reduce dependence on a narrow range of traditional commodities.
The NES II itself acknowledged this structural weakness, warning that Malawi suffers from “high concentration of exports to few countries and a narrow export basket with over prevalence of low value added agriculture and agro processed products.”
The development threatens the broader aspirations of Malawi 2063, which places export-led growth at the centre of industrialisation, job creation and foreign exchange generation.
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Economist Murry Siyasiya described the situation as alarming, warning that shrinking exports coupled with rising imports would continue worsening the country’s trade balance and foreign exchange shortages.
“This is a disaster especially with the fact that the levels of imports are increasing which means trade balance will continue to worsen and therefore forex challenges and related issues as fuel shortages will also continue,” he said.
He attributed the weak export performance largely to policy failures and called for deliberate measures to promote value addition and industrialisation.
Minister of Industrialisation, Business, Trade and Tourism Simon Itaye admitted that it is unlikely that the NES II export target for 2026 will be achieved.
He said most of the country’s macroeconomic weaknesses, including a narrow export base, low competitiveness and productivity, poor infrastructure and logistics challenges, as well as external shocks and reduced development aid, persist.
He said the government is reviewing the 2021- 2026 strategy to determine the way forward.
“Greater private sector involvement would be needed to scale up production,” he said.
