By Benadetta Chiwanda Mia:
While Africa is poised for an economic rebound in 2025, with most countries expected to surpass a 5 percent real gross domestic product (GDP) growth mark, Malawi lags with an estimated growth rate of lower than 4 percent.
The estimates are contained in the latest African Development Bank (AfDB), Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook for 2025.
It highlights a continent-wide growth increase from 4.1 percent in 2025 to a projected 4.4 percent in 2026.
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The growth projections are largely attributed to successful economic reforms aimed at mitigating cost-of-living crises and improving fiscal and debt conditions across the continent.
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Malawi’s economy, which recorded a 1.8 percent growth in 2024, is estimated to grow by 4 percent this year.
South Sudan leads as the anticipated fastest-growing economy globally, driven by a projected 27.2 percent GDP growth due to the resumption of full crude oil production and exports.
Uganda and neighbouring Zambia are also expected to see substantial growth, at 7.5 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively.
Zambia’s growth is expected to benefit from mining sector recovery and economic diversification efforts aimed at reducing reliance on copper exports.
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Economics Association of Malawi (Ecama) President Bertha Chikadza, attributed Malawi’s sluggish growth to its heavy reliance on agriculture, which comprises about 28 percent of GDP and supports around 80 percent of the population, among many other factors.
“Any interruption to the sector makes the economy vulnerable. In 2024, growth was forecast at 3.2 percent but grew at 1.8 percent mainly resulting from the adverse impacts of El Nino, which reduced [the] maize production [rate] by 22.7 percent, along with other crops,” Chikadza said.
In 2024, Malawi’s growth was forecast at 3.2 percent but reached only 1.8 percent due to a 22.7 percent reduction in the maize production rate.
Chikadza singled out high inflation, trade imbalances, an unsustainable public debt position and foreign exchange shortages among growth constraints.
Economist Alick Nyasulu echoed the sentiments, highlighting that while Malawi is expanding, the growth is insufficient to keep pace with the rapidly increasing population.
“The business environment remains unattractive for foreign direct investment, a much-needed catalyst for growth. Each country faces unique problems but global shocks can affect everyone,” Nyasulu said.
