By Deogratias Mmana:
The latest Economic Intelligence country report on Malawi released on June 28, 2023 says President Lazarus Chakwera and his Malawi Congress Party (MCP) face a probable defeat at the 2025 elections.
The report, which gives an outlook for 2023-2027 in various areas, including political and economic landscapes, also says while the country will generally remain secure, it will politically be unstable with a highly fractured political setting.
But government spokesperson Moses Kunkuyu dismissed the probable defeat and political instability, saying in a democracy, there is freedom of association and that no single partner has pulled out of the alliance.
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Kunkuyu said the current administration has a focus on sustaining what has led to stability and ensuring that it does not slide back into the tense and unstable recent past.
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The report further says the country will face localised public protests because of the high cost of living and that they will intensify as there will be a delay to secure an Extended Credit Facility (ECF) with the International Monetary Fund until at least 2024.
“The expected Fund programme alongside the ongoing IMF staff-monitored programme (SMP, running from November 2022 until November 2023) would probably require Malawi to roll back subsidies on maize, fertiliser, electricity and fuel. We expect Malawi to keep social spending high to mitigate public unrest,” the report reads.
It adds that the selective arrest of political figures and senior government officials and lack of will to fight corruption will also stoke the protests.
The report cites the arrest of Vice President Saulos Chilima and Anti-Corruption Bureau Director General Martha Chizuma as examples.
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“Corruption remains endemic in public life, which perpetuates public protests, piling pressure on the government. We expect the authorities to continue to crack down hard on public protest,” the report reads.
According to the report, Chakwera, without parliamentary majority, will continue leading with limited support from other members of the governing Tonse Alliance due to in-fighting about succession issues.
On international relations, the report says Malawi’s relations with Western partners such the United States and the European Union which, contribute substantially in terms of aid and grants, will be jeopardised because of endemic corruption and a lack of transparency.
“We expect a lack of political will to stifle efforts to root out corruption, worsening relations with major Western countries,” the report reads but adds that the country’s relations with China and neighbouring southern African countries will remain positive, built on financing, investments and trade.
But Kunkuyu dismissed the argument that the lack of parliamentary majority could be an issue for the government.
“I do not know what the lack of parliamentary majority implies in this context. We have been stable with the current parliamentary configuration,” he said.
On corruption, Kunkuyu said no government has ever had a well empowered ACB with no interference like the current one.
Commenting on poverty and unemployment concerns, Kunkuyu said the issues are driven by many factors some of which are global in nature but was quick to add that the government is exploring local solutions to the problems.
Executive Director for Centre for Human Rights and Rehabilitation Michael Kaiyatsa said the report is a true reflection of the situation on the ground.
Kaiyatsa said the economy is in free-fall mode due to years of economic mismanagement under the previous administration, which he said has continued under the current administration and that there is no hope of improvement in the coming few years.
“On the political side, the outlook is not encouraging either. Already, we have seen pockets of political violence across the country.
“Such acts of violence are likely to intensify as we edge towards the 2025 elections. The selective arrests of political and senior government officials have added to the mix,” he said.
On his part, Human Rights Defenders Coalition chairperson Gift Trapence urged Chakwera to be decisive in his administration and avoid the appeasement policy.
“Malawians want a leader who can restore hope by doing it not by mere words and promises,” Trapence said.
Chakwera secured 59 percent of the rerun of the presidential election in 2020 ahead of Peter Mutharika of Democratic Progressive Party who got 39 percent.
