By Benadetta Chiwanda Mia:
Global fertiliser markets could see stable supplies of nitrogen and phosphorus in 2025 but Malawi might not benefit due to persistent foreign exchange shortages that continue to disrupt local supply chains.
In its Medium-Term Fertiliser Outlook for 2024-28, the International Fertiliser Association (IFA) projects steady supplies, although it warns that unfavourable weather and geopolitical tensions could drive nitrogen prices higher this year.
The IFA report notes that fertiliser markets remain vulnerable to global risks, including geopolitical conflicts, economic uncertainties and climate-related challenges.
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It further indicates that high inflation and interest rates have also reduced borrowing capacity for both producers and consumers.
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Spot checks by The Daily Times have established that, currently, a 50-kilogramme (kg) bag of NPK is selling at K119,000, urea is now fetching K116,000, while CAN is priced at K106,000.
Super D-Compound is at K170,000, while D-Compound is selling at K138,000.
In an interview, Fertiliser Association of Malawi Executive Director Hannah Makhambera said that forex challenges have already disrupted this season’s supply, pushing retail prices higher.
It has transpired that the country has only managed to import around 250,000 metric tonnes, against an annual demand of 400,000 metric tonnes, due to forex constraints as of November 2024.
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Makhambera said that erratic rainfall has also made farmers hesitant to purchase fertiliser, only buying when weather conditions promise good yields.
“Even if global fertiliser prices decrease, our main challenge remains the availability of forex. With sufficient foreign exchange, we could see retail prices come down.
“We are facing a significant backlog of fertiliser imports and outstanding supplier bills, which further complicates efforts to achieve market stability,” Makhambera said.
Farmers Union of Malawi Chief Executive Officer Jacob Nyirongo said that, while global supply stability could potentially lower local prices, high demand and supply bottlenecks might undermine this prospect.
“The government should leverage the improved forex position expected during the tobacco marketing season to ensure adequate allocation for fertiliser procurement.
“Late procurement and logistical challenges are major factors affecting farmers’ access to the commodity in Malawi,” Nyirongo said.
Agricultural experts warn that continued fertiliser supply challenges could affect crop production and food security, particularly as the country grapples with climate-related farming disruptions.
In a separate interview, agriculture policy expert Leonard Chimwaza said that current fertiliser prices have increased the cost of production, which may affect output.
“We should expect fertiliser supply challenges and continued increases in the price of the commodity in 2025 and beyond if we do not address foreign exchange availability problems,” Chimwaza said.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Agriculture says it is working with various stakeholders to improve fertiliser accessibility, although critics argue that more urgent intervention is needed.
