By Justin Mkweu:
Malawians should brace for a prolonged dry spell during the next rainy season, particularly in the Southern Region, as a global Super El Niño is expected to affect the country.
The Ministry of Natural Resources says there is now a 62 to more than 80 percent chance that Malawi will experience Super El Niño conditions.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon often associated with reduced rainfall and drought in southern Africa.
- Advertisement -
According to a bulletin from the ministry, Malawi is expected to receive below normal rainfall, particularly in districts in the Southern Region, from October this year to March next year.
- Advertisement -
The ministry warns that the weather conditions could have far-reaching effects on agriculture, water resources, health and disaster risk management.
Agriculture is likely to be affected by prolonged dry spells, water resources by declining lake levels and reduced river flows, while the health sector could experience an increase in vector-borne and heat-related illnesses.
The ministry has called on the Directorate of Climate Change and Meteorological Services, the Department of Disaster Management Affairs (Dodma), line ministries, local authorities, development partners, civil society organisations and communities to strengthen preparedness and mitigation measures.
Agricultural policy expert Leonard Chimwaza said the country should prepare for possible food shortages next year if adequate measures are not taken.
- Advertisement -
Chimwaza suggested that the Farm Input Subsidy Programme should be divided into separate packages for rain-fed farming and irrigation to support larger and more intensive agricultural production.
“Let us also properly manage our strategic grain reserves by giving Admarc enough resources to buy food for consumption next year and for price stabilisation instead of waiting to import from neighbouring countries,” he said.
Development partners have also urged Malawi to prepare early for the anticipated El Niño.
World Food Programme Country Director Hyoung Joon Lim said the threat is real and reiterated that early action is the country’s best defence.
“Donor funding is declining globally and that is our challenge. We therefore need to mobilise local resources because early preparedness is the only way to reduce the impact,” Lim said.
Dodma Director of Disaster Preparedness and Response Charles Matabwa said although the full extent of the impact is still being assessed, the department is preparing to minimise the effects.
“There is indeed an El Niño coming and food requirements are likely to be huge. We will therefore need support in addition to our own preparedness efforts,” Matabwa said.
Malawi last experienced strong El Niño conditions during the 2015-16 and 2023- 24 agricultural seasons, leaving about 2.8 million and 4.2 million people food insecure respectively.
The country’s recent experience with climate-related disasters highlights the potential cost of inadequate preparedness.
According to government Post-Disaster Needs Assessment reports, the 2015 floods caused an estimated $335 million in damage and required a recovery budget of $494 million.
The 2016 drought resulted in losses of $365.9 million and required $500.2 million for recovery. Cyclone Idai in 2019 caused damage estimated at $220.2 million, with a recovery budget of $370.5 million.
Following Cyclone Ana in 2022, the government estimated recovery costs at $88 million. Cyclone Freddy in 2023 was the most devastating, causing an estimated $506.7 million in damage and requiring $680.4 million for recovery.
The warning also comes amid concerns over global food market risks.
In a blog titled ‘When Risks Stack Up: Threats to Global Food Markets in 2026, the World Bank says El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen to moderate or strong levels during the Northern Hemisphere autumn.
It says forecasters estimate nearly a two-thirds probability that El Niño will reach strong intensity by November and December.
“With agricultural markets already facing conflict-related cost pressures, a stronger or more persistent El Niño could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously and push food prices well above current projections,” the blog says.
