News of a possible Super El Niño immediately made Givemore Zambasa think about the mountain that feeds Chimwalambangu Irrigation Scheme.
The small-scale farmer from Traditional Authority (TA) Malemia in Nsanje District depends on water flowing from the mountain to sustain his maize and other crops.
If forecasts of a prolonged dry spell prove true, he fears that lifeline could disappear.
“I only heard about the possibility of a Super El Niño today from a colleague during a village gathering and from you,” Zambasa said in an interview with a Times reporter.
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Still, he quickly understood the implications. A Super El Niño could bring prolonged dry spells that would reduce crop production.
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His concern reflects warnings from climate scientists and the government that another severe El Niño could develop during the 2026-27 rainy season.
The Ministry of Natural Resources says there is more than an 80 percent chance Malawi will experience El Niño conditions, with below-normal rainfall expected between October and March, particularly in the Southern Region.
The ministry warns that prolonged dry spells could reduce crop production, lower river flows and lake levels, increase heat-related and vector-borne diseases and heighten disaster risks.
For Zambasa, those warnings are deeply personal.
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“Our irrigation water comes from that mountain. If this El Niño occurs, we risk having insufficient water for our crops, just as we experienced during previous dry seasons,” he says.
Previous El Niño seasons reduced water flowing into the irrigation scheme, cutting his household’s food production by an estimated 50 to 70 percent.
He fears another severe drought could once again leave his family short of food.
Although he has not changed the crops he plans to grow, Zambasa says he is considering drought-tolerant varieties if forecasts become more certain.
“I have different types of crops in my food reserves, so I don’t think a Super El Niño would immediately affect my family as severely as before,” he says.
About 35 kilometres away, in Jambo Village under TA Mbenje, another farmer faces an even greater risk.
Unlike Zambasa, Micheal Kupasa depends entirely on rainfall because he has no irrigation scheme. Yet he had never heard about the possibility of a Super El Niño before the interview.
“Neither agricultural extension officers nor local leaders have informed this community about this looming weather phenomenon,” Kupasa says.
Although unfamiliar with the term, he understands exactly what prolonged drought can mean.
Kupasa vividly recalls a season two years ago when his crops wilted, leaving his family and many others in the sweltering district without enough food.
“Since we normally depend on rain, if another severe drought occurs, we will not have enough food again. It is something that is giving me ulcers,” he says.
He adds that he usually considers drought-tolerant crop varieties when dry conditions are expected. Unlike Zambasa, however, he has no food reserves to fall back on.
Kupasa’s fears are rooted in experience rather than speculation.
Malawi last experienced strong El Niño conditions during the 2015-16 and 2023-24 agricultural seasons, leaving about 2.8 million and 4.2 million people food insecure respectively.
During the most recent event, then president Lazarus Chakwera declared a state of disaster in 23 of the country’s 28 districts after an estimated 44 percent of the national maize crop was affected.
While Zambasa and Kupasa worry about another drought, Peter Ted Makondi, a farmer in Balaka District, sees the forecasts as a call to prepare rather than panic.
Unlike the two Nsanje farmers, Makondi had already learnt about the possibility of a Super El Niño through social media and updates from the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS).
“Of course, agricultural extension officers have not visited my community. Still, with information flowing through different channels, I know what to expect and how to counter it,” Makondi says.
His confidence stems from hard lessons.
Like many farmers in Balaka, he has seen extreme weather devastate his fields.
“Some of the crops in the field were washed away and crops like beans did not perform well when floods hit our area,” he says, recalling previous seasons.
The experience changed the way he farms.
Makondi now grows drought-tolerant and early-maturing crop varieties to reduce climate risks.
“I have not intended to change crops because the crops I always plant are drought tolerant and early maturing,” he says.
He also has access to a perennial river that supplies water for irrigation throughout the year.
“If a dry spell hits again, I don’t think my family will be affected because I don’t always depend on rain for my gardens,” he says as he tends rows of irrigated onions in his lush green field.
Makondi has further strengthened his resilience by diversifying his crops, growing maize, cassava, sweet potatoes, bananas, cowpeas and beans.
Together, the experiences of the three farmers illustrate the uneven state of climate preparedness across rural Malawi.
Zambasa relies on irrigation but fears dwindling water supplies. Kupasa depends entirely on rainfall and has no food reserves, while Makondi combines irrigation, crop diversification and drought-tolerant crops to reduce his vulnerability.
Their stories also reveal another concern. Both Zambasa and Kupasa say they have not received information about the looming Super El Niño from agricultural extension officers or local leaders.
The Ministry of Natural Resources has urged DCCMS, the Department of Disaster Management Affairs (Dodma), line ministries, local authorities, development partners, civil society organisations and communities to strengthen preparedness before the rainy season.
Agricultural policy expert Leonard Chimwaza says Malawi cannot afford to wait until crops fail before taking action.
He proposes separating the Farm Input Subsidy Programme into packages for rain-fed and irrigated agriculture to strengthen production and improve climate resilience.
“Let us also properly manage our strategic grain reserves by giving Admarc enough resources to buy food for consumption next year and for price stabilisation instead of waiting to import from neighbouring countries,” Chimwaza says.
Preparations, however, are unfolding against mounting financial constraints.
Admarc has suspended maize purchases because the State-owned grain trader has received less than 10 percent of the K60 billion allocated to it in the national budget.
Meanwhile, World Food Programme Country Director Hyoung Joon Lim warns that declining international donor funding means Malawi will increasingly have to rely on domestic resources.
“We therefore need to mobilise local resources because early preparedness is the only way to reduce the impact,” Lim says.
Economists and food security experts say the funding shortfall exposes a broader challenge of financing disaster preparedness in an era of increasingly frequent climate shocks.
They argue that investing before disasters strike costs far less than mounting large-scale humanitarian responses after crops have failed.
Despite those concerns, Dodma Director of Disaster Preparedness and Response Charles Matabwa insists that government has already begun preparing for the anticipated impacts.
“There is indeed an El Niño coming and food requirements are likely to be huge. We will therefore need support in addition to our own preparedness efforts,” Matabwa says.
The warning echoes the World Bank’s assessment that a stronger El Niño could disrupt food production across major agricultural regions, driving up food prices and increasing production costs.
Malawi has already paid a heavy price for climate-related disasters.
The 2015 floods, the 2016 drought and cyclones Idai, Ana and Freddy together cost the country hundreds of millions of dollars in damage and recovery.
For now, the mountain above Chimwalambangu, the skies over Jambo Village and the river that waters Makondi’s fields symbolise three different hopes.
One farmer is watching his water source; another is waiting for rain and the third is relying on the lessons of past disasters.
As he returns to tending his crops beneath the mountain that sustains Chimwalambangu Irrigation Scheme, Zambasa reflects on the uncertainty every farmer must live with.
“A farmer cannot stop farming because of fear. We are preparing for the worst, but we are still hoping for the best, he says.
