On March 3, Pakistan’s National Assembly elected Shehbaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN) as prime minister for a second time, and tasked him with forming a new coalition government, following one of the most controversial elections in the country’s history.
The February 8 election was marred by allegations of large-scale rigging and military influence as well as delayed results. Such allegations and irregularities surrounding national votes are not unusual in Pakistan’s chequered democratic history, but this election cycle marked a new low as almost all political parties, albeit to different degrees, have raised rigging allegations, calling into question the legitimacy of the entire election process.
Going forward, the new government is going to face immense political pressure at home. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek- I-Insaf (PTI) party, which was forced to field its candidates as independents after losing its election symbol, had emerged as the largest group in the National Assembly with 93 seats and is expected to continue agitating in parliament as well as the streets. The ruling PMLN’s primary coalition partner, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), meanwhile, made the calculated decision to abstain from taking a position within the government, leaving Prime Minister Sharif and his party solely accountable for the many challenges looming on the horizon.
With numerous domestic issues, including a faltering economy, unprecedented inflation and internal security, high on the agenda, the new government will be likely have no time to waste on the foreign policy front.
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Of various urgent and important foreign policy challenges, the most significant and consequential challenge the new Sharif government will face is going to be maintaining Pakistan’s strategic autonomy, and balancing relations with the United States and China amid their escalating rivalry.
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In his inaugural speech in the parliament, Sharif pledged that the country will not be part of any great game, implying that Pakistan will not align exclusively with either the US or China in their ongoing friction. Nonetheless, it is easier said than done, as the manoeuvring space for balancing relations with both global powers is fast shrinking.
The signs of troubled times were visible for quite some time, especially with consistently growing US criticism of Chinese investment projects in Pakistan under the China- Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
The tensions stemming from efforts to strike a balance between relations with the US and China had reached a peak last year when Pakistan opted out of the virtual Democracy Summit co-hosted by US President Joe Biden after participating in the International Forum on Democracy in Beijing just a week earlier.
At the moment, the bilateral relationship between Pakistan and the US is on a downward spiral. The amount of American military and economic support to Pakistan is rapidly declining, especially since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Regardless of the shallow and seemingly transactional nature of bilateral relations, however, the US remains the largest export market for Pakistani goods. As such, the direction of the Pakistan-US relations has material consequences for Islamabad, especially with regard to the timely approval of the crucial next loan programme of the International Monetary Fund. In this context, the new Pakistani government is likely eager to improve this relationship and carry it beyond surface-level interactions.
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The Biden administration’s apparent disinterest in alleged election irregularities in Pakistan serves as a tacit acknowledgement of its willingness to collaborate with the new government. Nevertheless, the Pakistan- US relationship is expected to remain at this current level for some time, as with the presidential elections now so close, Washington is unlikely to change direction or significantly alter its policies towards the region in the next few months.
This period of stagnation, however, could be an opportunity for the new Sharif government to prepare for the future, and devise a strategy that would allow the two countries to move their relationship to the next level, find new areas to collaborate and move past the transactional state of affairs.— Al Jazeera
