Malawi’s strides to attain the middle-income economy mark remains under intense threat as the country’s economy has been susceptible to myriad shocks due to harsh weather conditions among other factors.
This is according to an analysis by the United Nations Malawi which says natural disasters have in recent past eroded development gains.
The latest Common Country Analysis Horizon Scan shows that the country is grappling with frequent and severe climate shocks, including floods, droughts, storms and landslides, which have become more pronounced between 2010 and 2024.
The report says the disasters are not only triggering humanitarian crises, but also forcing the government to redirect scarce resources from long-term investment to emergency response.
“The rising incidence of extreme weather events translates directly into recurrent shocks to food security, incomes, social welfare, and public finances,” reads the report. .
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At the same time, environmental degradation is accelerating, with forest cover declining at an annual rate of 2.8 percent, while about 60 percent of land is affected by erosion and undermining agricultural productivity.
The UN also estimates that more than four million Malawians are lacking access to safe water, which is also limiting irrigation expansion, heightening disease risks and intensifying competition for already strained resources.
Although Malawi has made modest gains in electricity access, rising to between 23 and 26 percent in 2024 from 14 percent in 2022, rural areas remain largely disconnected, with only 2 to 4 percent of households linked to the grid.
Infrastructure deficits, including poor road networks, inadequate storage facilities and weak water systems, are further magnifying the cost of disasters and slowing recovery efforts.
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While policy frameworks have improved, the analysis says implementation remains weak due to limited financing.
Climate-related spending accounts for an estimated 9 to 12 percent of public expenditure, but more than 50 percent of funding is donor-driven and off-budget, raising concerns about sustainability and transparency.
“The National Climate Change Investment Plan’s $954.5 million ask and the creation of a National Climate Change Fund are positive steps, but actual allocations and programming are limited, and donor dependence remains high,” reads the report.
The report underscores that addressing climate and environmental challenges is central to achieving the goals of Malawi Vision 2063.
Among the proposed interventions include scaling up emergency food assistance, expanding nutrition programmes, strengthening social protection systems and investing in climate-smart agriculture, including irrigation and drought-resistant crops.
Economist Marvin Banda said if current trends persist, Malawi risks being locked into a low-growth, high-dependence economy.
He said the country must transition from inefficient rain-fed agriculture to irrigation-led farming, arguing that overreliance on increasingly erratic rainfall is no longer economically viable.
“The country must invest in climate-proof agriculture and rural infrastructure,” he said.
The World Bank says climate change could reduce Malawi’s Gross Domestic Product growth by between three and nine percent by 2030 if no strong adaptation measures are taken.
