By Isaac Salima:
As Malawi heads to the polls in September next year and amid a generally heightening election mood, an Afrobarometer survey ratcheted up the election fever on Friday with its findings.
According to the survey, if elections were held at the time it was conducted between August 1 and 15, 2024, 43 percent of Malawians would vote for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
The governing Malawi Congress Party (MCP) would go home with 29 percent of Malawians’ voting for it.
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However, none of the two would get a 50%+1 threshold.
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In reaction, MCP has trashed the findings, insisting it is going nowhere.
But one of Afrobarometer lead researchers said the findings represent the voice of Malawians and ought to serve as basis for politicians’ reflection.
According to the survey, in the election, UTM would come third with seven percent while only two percent of voters would opt for the United Democratic Front.
The findings show that Malawians are largely dissatisfied with the performance of the administration in a number of areas.
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According to the survey:
- 76 percent of Malawians think the country is going in the wrong direction
- 68 percent think that corruption has increased over the past year, and more than half of them say it has increased “a lot”.
- Only 29 percent of citizens think the government is doing well in fighting corruption in government.
On corruption perception, the citizens cited the Office of President and Cabinet and Malawi Police Service as the most corrupt public institutions in Malawi.
Presenting the findings in Blantyre yesterday, McPherry Kuntembwe, one of the researchers, said almost half of the country’s population said they had paid a bribe to a police officer to avoid legal issues.
Business executives and civil servants rank among the most corrupt in Malawi, according to the survey.
Citizens also expressed dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the economy, keeping prices stable and closing the income gap.
But there are some positives too.
A slight majority of Malawians say government has done a good job in provision of water, reliable electricity and educational needs.
Further, up to 84 percent of citizens who are eligible to vote say they “will definitely vote” in the 2025 general elections.
Director for Centre for Social Research and Afrobarometer National Investigator for Malawi Joseph Chunga said the survey represents voices of Malawians.
“This tells that if politicians lose the touch with people by not living with realities of what people are going through, they are going to face consequences,” he said.
And governance and political commentator Wonderful Mkhutche said there is need for political will to fight corruption in the country.
“We are in a government that was voted in on the promise to fight corruption. But looking at the situation, it is now upon government to come in and explain why they have failed and assure Malawians what they are doing.
“It is a sad situation that we are in an environment that is forcing us to be corrupt in order to get certain public service,” he said.
Government spokesperson Moses Kunkuyu insisted that government has made strides in the fight against graft.
“We have had instances of corruption for decades but what has been lacking is the spirit to fight it in a decisive manner.
“But now we have an Anti- Corruption Bureau that is being funded in a manner that has never been experienced before,” he said.
DPP spokesperson Shadrick Namalomba was not immediately available for comment.
But MCP Secretary General Richard Chimwendo Banda said “whether one likes it or not, MCP is not going out of government.”
According to him, DPP is no longer a force to reckon with as it is weakened by splits.
“In addition, the survey was conducted at the time the situation was very bad in the country. Now the challenges are being fixed and many people want MCP to continue running government. No one wants DPP back in power,” he said at Parliament yesterday.
He further dismissed the findings as based on a narrow sample size.
“The survey interviewed only 1,200 people met by chance in the street and not registered to vote; instead of asking 7 million people who will vote,” he said.
But this is not the first time that Afrobarometer has used such a sample size.
In November to December 2019, ahead of June 2020 fresh elections, the institution conducted a similar survey. It also interviewed a representative sample of 1,200 adult Malawians.
That survey found that DPP and MCP were tied at 32 percent of Malawians who said they would vote for them in a presidential election.
The UTM and United Democratic Front trailed with 12 percent and two percent in that survey.
In the fresh presidential elections, MCP entered a coalition with UTM and eight other parties, leading to the election of President Lazarus Chakwera.
Between March 23 and April 7, 2014, Afrobarometer conducted a survey using a sample of 2,400 adult citizens.
That survey found that President Joyce Banda’s approval rating had dropped from a high of 68 percent shortly after she took office in 2012 to just 38 percent in 2014.
Banda went on to lose the election in May 2014.
