Malawi could benefit from improving trade conditions across Africa, but persistent macroeconomic challenges risk limiting its ability to fully capitalise on emerging opportunities.
This is according to the latest Africa Trade Barometer (ATB) released by Standard Bank Group this month, which points to stronger infrastructure, rising business confidence and growing regional integration across key trade-enabling sectors in 10 major African economies.
The report covering countries including Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Mozambique and Zambia, shows broad improvements in trade enabling infrastructure including transport networks, power supply, telecommunications and digital border systems, signalling a more positive outlook for cross-border commerce.
Economic growth across the surveyed markets is projected to reach 4.3 percent in 2026, supported by easing inflation and improved external debt positions.
“The business confidence index rose to 65, with most firms expecting stronger turnover and more stable trading conditions,” states the report.
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The ATB also points to growing momentum under the African Continental Free Trade Area which is driving intra-African trade, with AfCFTA awareness at 50 percent and 59 percent of exporters selling into Africa.
Digital payments now facilitate 78 percent of cross border sales and 79 percent of purchases, driven by the growing use of the Pan African Payment and Settlement System (Papss), allowing for faster settlement in local currencies and reducing reliance on hard currency intermediaries.
Although Malawi was not among the countries surveyed, economists say the country’s trajectory broadly mirrors regional trends, albeit at a slower pace.
Economics Association of Malawi President Bertha Bangara Chikadza, said Malawi is aligning with regional progress but continues to lag behind more advanced economies.
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“The positive trends in regional trade-enabling infrastructure and business confidence are reflected in Malawi, but they are tempered by the country’s specific and persistent macroeconomic challenges,” she said.
The Trade Barometer attributes improved prospects in surveyed countries to moderating inflation and stronger external debt positions, conditions that differ in Malawi.
The ATB identifies small and medium enterprises (SMEs) as central to Africa’s trade growth. However, Chikadza observed that in Malawi, limited access to finance and logistics bottlenecks continue to restrict their participation.
National Statistics Office data shows that in 2025, Malawi’s trade deficit widened by 15 percent to $2.67 billion from $2.2 billion in 2024 driven by high imports.
