Malawi has a long way to attain the middle-income economy mark, with the recent World Bank Country Income Classification stating that most people remain in the abyss of poverty.
According to the World Bank, in the current fiscal year, low-income economies are defined as those with a gross national income (GNI) per capita of $1,175 or less in 2025.
The group classifies lower-middle-income economies as those with a GNI per capita between $1,176 and $4,635; upper-middle-income economies between $4,636 and $14,375; while high-income economies have a GNI per capita above $14,375.
Meanwhile Malawi’s GNI per capita stands at just $550, placing it among the lowest-ranked countries within the low-income category.
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Among its neighbours, Mozambique recorded a GNI per capita of $605, Tanzania $1,121, Zimbabwe $1,070 and Zambia $1,343.
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This means meaning Zambia has already attained lower-middle-income status while Tanzania is on the verge of crossing the threshold.
The latest classification comes as Malawi seeks to attain lower-middle-income status by 2030 under the first 10-year Malawi Implementation Plan (MIP-1).
National Planning Commission (NPC) Director General Frederick Changaya said the commission had anticipated that the benchmark would rise beyond the earlier $1,000 target used during the formulation of Malawi 2063.
He said the country’s path to middle-income status lies in transforming agriculture from subsistence production to high-value export-oriented farming while accelerating industrialisation.
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“We believe if we repurpose our agriculture into high-value crops instead of subsistence farming, the same hectare of land that earns about K1.8 million can generate up to K40 million,” he said.
Economist Marvin Banda said the country’s current economic trajectory suggests that attaining middle-income status by 2030 is unrealistic.
“The fact that MIP- 1 implementation is admittedly off-track is a testament that Malawi’s target of achieving middle-income status is infeasible and borderline impossible. It will likely take beyond 2037 for that target to be reached because the country’s long-term development aspirations remain constrained by persistent structural weaknesses.
“Middle-income status cannot be achieved through consumption-led growth or donor support alone. It requires sustained productivity growth, export expansion and private sector investment,” he said.
Another economist Velli Nyirongo said there is a pressing need for fiscal discipline, stronger institutions and improved governance to build investor confidence.
