Malawi’s trade imbalance deepened in December 2025 after export earnings fell sharply while imports remained elevated. The outturn underscored the economy’s continued dependence on a narrow export base and costly foreign inputs. The latest National Statistical Office (NSO) International Merchandise Trade Statistics show that total exports dropped to $60.9 million in December, representing a 5.7 percent decline from $64.6 million during the corresponding month in 2024.
At the same time, total imports increased from $327.1 million in December 2024 to $332.1 million in December 2025, representing a 1.5 percent increase, pushing the country’s trade deficit to $271.2 million. The export-to-import ratio was 0.18, indicating that Malawi earned just 18 cents in exports for every dollar spent on imports. On a month-to-month basis, exports dropped by 44.4 percent from $109.4 million in November 2025 to $60.9 million in December while imports declined only slightly by 4.6 percent.
“As a result, the trade deficit increased by 13.5 percent, from $238.9 million in November 2025 to $271.2 million in December 2025,” the report reads. The report also reveals that Malawi’s continued heavy reliance on a single crop, namely tobacco, affected it, with the top 10 export commodities accounting for 84.4 percent of total export earnings.
Tobacco alone contributed $43.9 million (K72.89 billion), or 72.1 percent. Tea and sugar followed far behind, earning $2.5 million (4.2 percent) and $2.0 million (3.3 percent), respectively. On the import side, the top 10 products made up 66.1 percent of total import spending, amounting to $219.6 million. Fertiliser topped the list of imports at $44.3 million (13.3 percent), followed closely by diesel at $43.9 million (13.2 percent) and petrol at $35.3 million (10.6 percent).
Economist Marvin Banda attributed the performance to structural challenges with the country’s export base agriculture-dominated. According to Banda, heavy reliance on tobacco for export earnings reveals that the diversification drive is still confined to planning and aspirations rather than actual implementation. He called on the government to develop and enforce international value addition standards to make the exports more competitive.
- Advertisement -
“There is a need to narrow the diversification priorities to improve resource concentration efficiency,” he said. Malawi has been grappling with a widening trade deficit with the total trade deficit for 2024 recorded at $2.36 billion, according to the 2025 Malawi Trade Report. Treasury figures indicate that, for the past decade since 2015, the annual import bill has progressively risen to over $3 billion while exports have remained flat, at around $1 billion.
