Zero-sum game that is Malawian politics

By Davie Mchinga:

That former president Lazarus Chakwera engaged President Peter Mutharika last week on issues concerning the spate of arrests of senior Malawi Congress Party (MCP) officials is evidence that politics in Malawi is indeed a zero-sum game, the winner takes it all and the loser has nothing.

In his Kuimba I album, Evison Matafale claimed in ‘No Winner, No Loser’ song that in a democracy, and an election in particular, the idea that there’s a winner or loser is non-existent because both parties wield power to influence and oppose.

Of course, it makes sense given the political context this song was released in. The song was released in 1999, the year Malawi had elections and three main political parties United Democratic Front (UDF), Alliance for Democracy (Aford) and MCP had won seats in their regional strongholds.

As such, deliberations in Parliament as well as how the government wielded and controlled power and state institutions was prudent, because MCP, then the main opposition party, was vocal inside and outside Parliament.

In essence, there were proper checks and balances between the government and the opposition. Also, it was just five years after Malawi transitioned from one party rule to the majoritarian democratic dispensation.

No wonder, Matafale concluded that in political competitions, there is no winner or loser. But if he had lived to see what is happening today, he would surely have said the claim he made 25 years ago was just a figment of his philosophical imaginations.

Times have changed, Malawi’s political landscape has morphed and if a party loses power, it loses everything. Last year’s September 16 General Election was the final fulfilment that sealed the idea that now Malawi’s politics is a zero-sum game.

Look, at the time of elections last year, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) had scooped 77 parliamentary seats against MCP’s 55, and the larger remainder are independents, lawmakers who generally lean towards the government side.

Now, that in itself is evidence that Malawi politics is a zero-sum game to MCP, because unlike in the 2014 to 2019 seating of Parliament, the party had numerical advantage over the ruling DPP, and a certain section of independents voted alongside MCP in opposing the government.

But that honeymoon is non-existent this time around, MCP is weak and it has enemies, one of it being the UTM, an erstwhile alliance partner which some quarters think was treated unfairly when it ruled between 2020 and 2025. Meanwhile, MCP is a lonely wolf and has little or even no leverage at all.

It is no wonder that former Chakwera phoned President Mutharika to ask for political diplomacy, because he [Chakwera] knows that the MCP is vulnerable politically and if the party officials who were rabid in their tenure of office are to survive, he must shield them from retribution.

Fair enough that as a leader, he must protect his brood, but that in itself is an admission of vulnerability to his political foe, the DPP. Let’s not mince words here, retribution is part of politics in Malawi as well as beyond our borders.

Now what Chakwera has done is tantamount to surrendering himself to the gallows and now it is incumbent upon Mutharika and his blue-eyed boys to exercise clemency or not, but from the look of things; mercy is illusory here.

Look, the press release by President Mutharika himself which was released last week says it all. In it, President Mutharika categorically said his government is not pursuing senior MCP officials but there is alleged evidence of wrongdoing.

Now that should ring something in our heads, that more arrests are yet to come and last week, Attorney General Frank Mbeta and defence lawyer for MCP Secretary General Richard Chimwendo Banda tussled in court over Chimwendo’s temporary release from prison.

That cements Mutharika’s stance he made in the statement that the government will not back down, because it feels it has evidence to prosecute those who allegedly broke the law regardless of their political status in the previous administration.

So where does this leave MCP and former president Lazarus Chakwera? Certainly, their last line of defence is the public. Public sympathy is what now remains as a shield from the hegemonic force that is to squeeze them.

If President Mutharika doubles down on the arrest galore of senior MCP officials, former president Chakwera and MCP may likely invoke a victim card to manufacture sympathy from some unsuspecting Malawians.

It must be said that this has been the playbook of politicians. When they are squeezed by their political nemesis, they incite the public to be on their side. Last year, sympathizers of Speaker of Parliament Sameer Suleman braved the cold when they camped at Blantyre Police.

Likewise, MCP officials might also employ the same tactics if former president Chakwera himself or any other senior officials gets arrested. The goal, as has been the case, is to buy sympathy from the masses.

That’s how modern politics is playing out nowadays, a zero-sum game. The weak get trampled upon by the mighty and no wonder, in every election, there is always stiff competition on who gets the hot seat.

Because he or she who gets the seats wields somewhat absolute power, the power to unleash state security agencies such as police on their political enemies. Such are the times we are living in. Unlike Matafale’s time, in our present political competitions, we have real winners and losers.

Meanwhile, President Mutharika is the sole winner. He now controls every fabric of Malawian society including the opposition, in this case former president Chakwera and his MCP and all of us, are his subjects.

President Mutharika is the real winner, because he got 56 percent of the presidential vote against Chakwera 33 percent. He controls every department and people take orders from him, they cannot afford to say no or dare to ignore.

What about the opposition, MCP in particular? Former president Chakwera is the unfortunate loser. Power slipped from his hands, partly because he did not live up to his promises. Now he must enjoy this zero-sum game.