The Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM) Governor George Partridge has expressed optimism for continued ease in inflationary pressure, projecting headline inflation to fall to five percent by 2028.
He, however, attributed current elevated levels of inflation to supply-side shocks rather than demand pressures.
In an interview at the weekend, Partridge said recent fuel and electricity price increases have caused temporary spikes in non-food inflation, factors he rated as ‘blips’ on the path to the medium-term target.
Partridge said once the price increases establish a new base, inflationary pressures from these sources will moderate.
Partridge identified supply-side constraints as the major inflation challenge, compared to excessive demand.
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He said achieving the five percent inflation target by 2028 depends on sustained fiscal discipline and prudence in economic management.
“With the way the economy is being managed, especially on fiscal discipline, if it is sustained, then it is very likely we will achieve that level,” Partridge said.
Headline inflation decreased to 24.9 percent in January 2026 from 27.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 28.1 percent in the previous quarter.
Last week, the RBM’s Monetary Policy Committee lowered the policy rate to 24 percent, basing the decision on lowering of inflation.
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In an interview, Economics Association of Malawi President Bertha Chikadza said the five percent inflation mark could be reached much sooner.
She said with food inflation contained, non-food inflation checked, foreign exchange made available, and domestic borrowing reduced, inflation could fall to single digits within two years.
Chikadza said the RBM’s decision to cut the policy rate to 24 percent signals early signs of easing pressures, but stressed that coordination between fiscal and monetary policy will be decisive.
“Inflation can drop to a single digit in two years… if food inflation continues to be contained and falls significantly with food availability enhanced, and nonfood inflation which also contains imported inflation gets controlled,” she said.
