Food insecurity levels are expected to increase during the regular lean season, which commonly starts in October, as it may start as early as July this year, an update by United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs indicates.
This is due to the mid-season dry spell and floods that were exacerbated by the El Niño phenomenon in southern Africa.
According to the update, the late January to early March mid-season dry spell, which it says were characterised by heatwaves and temperatures five degrees above average, led to the declaration of national disasters in Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
El Niño conditions have also caused heavy rains and flooding in Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi and Zambia, displacing thousands of people, with Madagascar declaring a national disaster due to Tropical Storm Gamane in March 2024.
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Further, the update says there are high prospects of La Nina conditions in countries which were hit by El Nino.
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“There is a 60 percent chance of La Niña developing by June-August 2024, with a heightened risk of flooding for countries impacted by El Niño. That could result in significant humanitarian impact, especially where the resilience of affected communities has been weakened by the drought.
“However, favourable moisture conditions may bring reprieve to animals and wildlife and enable crop farming,” the report reads.
At least 6.6 million people require urgent humanitarian assistance in Zambia as well as nearly 9 million in Malawi.
In Zimbabwe, 2.7 million people face a similar predicament.
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In the 2023-24 lean season, which ended in March, at least 4.4 million people were food insecure in Malawi.
“The impact of the dry spell on food security is severe in a region where 70 percent of smallholder farmers rely on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihood… Food prices are significantly rising in many drought-affected areas, making it difficult for families to afford basic items and reducing children’s access to a nutritious diet. The highest food inflation rates in the region stand at 84 percent in Zimbabwe, 42 percent in Malawi and 25 percent in Angola as of March 2024,” the report reads.
To address the situation, the UN office says key priority areas include food assistance, the provision of water to people as well as the provision of agriculture inputs to capitalise on the expected favourable moisture conditions likely to be brought about by the forecast La Niña phenomenon.
Meanwhile, Director of Environmental Affairs at the Catholic University of Malawi Isaac Mwalwimba has said climatic shocks such as floods and draught should have different mitigating approaches as others are rapid while others are slow.
For example, Mwalwimba said in the case of floods, the country needs to do more in resettlement exercises in disaster-prone areas and changing the country’s agriculture systems to irrigation to mitigate food insecurity.
“Can’t we change our systems? Should we be waiting for distribution of farm inputs under the fertiliser subsidy programme until November and, yet, we have a lot of water now. We can also be looking at integrated water resource management, which can help in irrigation,” he said.
A consumer in Masasa Township in Mzuzu, Imrani Bisi, said maize supplies should be highly available in areas which faced either floods or dryspells.
Bisi expressed worry that an Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation (Admarc) depot in his area has not had any consignment since January this year.
“This piles pressure on households that are food insecure. The government needs to come in quickly,” he said.
In the 2024-25 fiscal year, government has given Admarc K21.8 billion to procure maize following pressure from Parliament that the grain trader needs enough resources.
When President Lazarus Chakwera declared a State of Disaster in 23 of the country’s 28 districts, he said the country needs about $200 million to adequately feed over two million households.
Chakwera then turned to all Malawians and international partners, saying they were key to averting chances of hunger in the country.
